The Independence Debate
3.7 Full Tax Powers and System Design
An independent Scotland would control all major taxes—income tax, corporation tax, VAT, a National Insurance equivalent, capital taxes, and the remaining smaller taxes.
The Peoples Future Scotland
The Independence Debate
3.6 Scottish Wealth Fund – Rules and Governance
A Scottish Wealth Fund would be established, capitalised primarily by a share of resource revenues (oil, gas, and potentially other natural resource income) and any negotiated asset transfers.
The Independence Debate
3.5 Independent Fiscal Institution
The existing Scottish Fiscal Commission would be strengthened into a fully independent fiscal institution with a statutory mandate to assess the government’s fiscal plans, judge compliance with the fiscal rules, and publish independent forecasts and sustainability analyses.
The Independence Debate
3.4 Legislated Fiscal Rules from Day One
A newly independent Scotland would face a challenging opening fiscal position and higher initial borrowing costs.
The Independence Debate
3.3 Expected Credit Rating and Borrowing Costs
A newly independent Scotland would initially pay a premium over UK gilt yields. Independent estimates have typically placed this premium at 0.4 to 1 percentage point or more in the early years.
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3.2 Allocation of UK National Debt
How would the existing UK national debt be shared? The allocation of existing UK national debt would be a matter for negotiation. The United Kingdom would remain the legal obligor for all outstanding gilts and other UK government debt issued before independence. Scotland would take on a fair and proportionate
The Independence Debate
3.1 Opening Fiscal Position and Structural Deficit
What would Scotland’s starting fiscal position be? Under current arrangements, the notional net fiscal balance recorded in Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) for 2025-26 shows a deficit of approximately £25.3 billion, or 10.9 per cent of GDP, when a geographic share of North Sea revenue
The Independence Debate
3. Public Finances, Debt, Taxation and Wealth Fund
The public finances are where independence meets arithmetic. Scotland would inherit a challenging fiscal starting point.
The Independence Debate
2.9 Crisis Contingency Plans
What plans would exist for a banking or currency crisis? The core question is operational and unavoidable under the chosen monetary regime: what plans would exist for a banking or financial crisis in an independent Scotland using sterling? The short answer is a published, layered contingency framework designed around the
2.8 Treatment of Existing Contracts, Mortgages, Savings and Pensions
What happens to existing sterling-denominated contracts and financial products? The core question is practical and immediate for households and businesses: what happens to existing sterling-denominated contracts and financial products on independence? The short answer is continuity without forced conversion. All existing contracts, mortgages, savings accounts, pensions and other
The Independence Debate
2.7 Reserves Strategy
The core question for financial resilience under the chosen currency regime is: how would an independent Scotland manage foreign exchange and sterling reserves?
The Independence Debate
2.6 Criteria and Path to any Future Scottish Currency
Could Scotland introduce its own currency later, and under what conditions? The core question is sequential and conditional: could Scotland introduce its own currency later, and under what conditions? The short answer is yes, but only when strict, pre-published economic and institutional tests are met. There would be no