The Independence Debate
4.2 Legal Form of Basing Agreement
The nuclear basing arrangement would take the form of a formal, treaty-based, long-term agreement between Scotland and the United Kingdom
The Peoples Future Scotland
The Independence Debate
4.1 Hosting of the UK Nuclear Deterrent
An independent Scotland would remain the home of the UK’s nuclear deterrent at Faslane and Coulport under a long-term basing agreement.
The Independence Debate
4. Defence, Security and NATO
Defence is where independence meets geography. Scotland sits on the northern flank of the Euro-Atlantic area, astride approaches to the North Atlantic and the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap, with existing bases, industrial capacity and skills that already matter to UK and Alliance security.
The Independence Debate
3.8 Medium-Term Fiscal Plan
A published, multi-year fiscal plan would set out the path from the opening deficit to a sustainable position. The plan would rely on a combination of economic growth, public-sector efficiency and prioritisation, and, where necessary, tax and spending adjustments.
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3.7 Full Tax Powers and System Design
An independent Scotland would control all major taxes—income tax, corporation tax, VAT, a National Insurance equivalent, capital taxes, and the remaining smaller taxes.
The Independence Debate
3.6 Scottish Wealth Fund – Rules and Governance
A Scottish Wealth Fund would be established, capitalised primarily by a share of resource revenues (oil, gas, and potentially other natural resource income) and any negotiated asset transfers.
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3.5 Independent Fiscal Institution
The existing Scottish Fiscal Commission would be strengthened into a fully independent fiscal institution with a statutory mandate to assess the government’s fiscal plans, judge compliance with the fiscal rules, and publish independent forecasts and sustainability analyses.
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3.4 Legislated Fiscal Rules from Day One
A newly independent Scotland would face a challenging opening fiscal position and higher initial borrowing costs.
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3.3 Expected Credit Rating and Borrowing Costs
A newly independent Scotland would initially pay a premium over UK gilt yields. Independent estimates have typically placed this premium at 0.4 to 1 percentage point or more in the early years.
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3.2 Allocation of UK National Debt
How would the existing UK national debt be shared? The allocation of existing UK national debt would be a matter for negotiation. The United Kingdom would remain the legal obligor for all outstanding gilts and other UK government debt issued before independence. Scotland would take on a fair and proportionate
The Independence Debate
3.1 Opening Fiscal Position and Structural Deficit
What would Scotland’s starting fiscal position be? Under current arrangements, the notional net fiscal balance recorded in Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) for 2025-26 shows a deficit of approximately £25.3 billion, or 10.9 per cent of GDP, when a geographic share of North Sea revenue
The Independence Debate
3. Public Finances, Debt, Taxation and Wealth Fund
The public finances are where independence meets arithmetic. Scotland would inherit a challenging fiscal starting point.